Lies, Damned lies, and foreign investment.

So, it has been revealed by the Panama Papers that one foreign company is using a secret trust to hide approximately $150m dollars in investment in New Zealand. While Inland Revenue report that NZ$1.5b is being hidden by shell companies. Listening to the radio this morning, one DJ asked the question "If they are putting money into this country and creating more money why is it wrong?"

Firstly his question presents a false premise, the money added to the invested isn't emerging from a vacuum like energy from some Zero Point Module on Stargate. That money has already been created, and it is being drawn from the broad economy as fees, rents, interest payments. All the $150m is doing is capturing money like a magnet dropped in a box of paper clips. Over time, that fund may double, and eventually the investor will find an opportunity offering a better return rate, what happens then? They pull their investment and the collected returns, taking say $300m, leaving our country $150m down. And worst still they have not paid 1 cent in taxes here. They are freeloading on our nations good name and low corruption index, while 250,000 children live in poverty and thousands of Aucklanders are without a home. Mean while the minister for Revenue says "its not a problem" and the PM says it barking mad to describe New Zealand as a tax haven.
What being done? nothing obviously. What could be done, the world over we could and should tax all business activity in the country in which it occurs. Not where the corporation claims to be, Google is not an Irish Company unless you are reading their tax filings. It seems Corporations today are less patriotic than the fifth columnists of 80years ago.

This is just one of the many ways the 1% are bleeding this country and others dry. Now you can understand how parasitism really works in economics. Leaches and  flees invest anticoagulants so they can get a higher investment return. That is why they're bites itch so much.
The working people who may or may not be employed are the people who make the economy work, every dollar they get they put back into the community, as they buy food clothing, public transport, local body rates. This is much more of a commitment that the 1% who might spend as much as 5% of their income in the broad economy, occasionally buying a new luxury car, or penthouse.

Naturally there are those who say "go easy on the rich, they work to you know". Sure their nice offices, phone calls and stock trades over the internet really compare to the back breaking work of care giving the elder for minimum wage, burger flipping for long hours, or the black lung of coal miners. I get it, these poor billionaire are really struggling they don't even know where their next Concorde airliner is coming from.

This country is itching like a meth-addict after forty years of free-trade and foreign investment and still the Rentier in Chief John Key begs for more. Of course turkey never vote for Solstice feasts.


#smellEstablishmentDecomp and pass the Vaseline.

See also NZ Herald
   Daily Caller

Bad inflation - not a reason against unconditional basic income

"Well, " they say "if you increase wages, or benefits, the inflation boogeyman will eat your children" or something similar. It almost sounds convincing, premised on the free market law of supply and demand, Yes demand increases. But so do the opportunities for people to meet that demand, and trials of unconditional basic income have shown that communities and individuals are more than willing to work and increase supply, and so successful are they at meeting market demand prices fall.

Also price pressure reduces because labour costs fall for such enterprises, as workers supported by the UBI, choose to work not because they need the money, but because they see the value of the work product to their community. And profits from the enterprise can benefit the community as a whole.
For the individual or family group, they can enrich their lives by contributing time to the community, and perhaps starting and enterprise of the their own, creating further down pressure in whatever market they choose.

Corporations and billionaires enjoy inflation it drives their increasing prices. In the 80's they gave us 12% mortgage rates, and now the can  today scare those us over 30 us into fearing high inflation.

Today, we see job disappearing as manufacturing production is shifted to South  and East Asia and china brands itself as factory floor to the world. But all hush hush on the long work shifts and high suicide rates.  If think your neighbours can continue to support themselves and their families, purely "good honest work" it may be worth noting not even National is willing to make that bold claim, which the would have to in order to kill "Working for Families" tax credits.

Today, a $25 Child Hardship addon for families on benefits starts. While not universal, it will stimulate demand, companies will hire, especially in food production and clothing retail. While it is tempting to think this is a handout to "lazy poor second class citizens better off enslaved or euthanized" (as is the attitude of some) It is actually more of a handout to the retail sector, so if you are against "handouts" be consistent, Briscoes, the Warehouse, and welfare queens like Anadarko, Tag Oil, the woolworths chain. The Aussie banks. And the others who slide on NZ$6b in tax evasion.

You might also stop asking for hand outs like the building and maintenance of roads universities, hospitals, if you are sick build your own hospital. Like to travel build your own private road, because by you own hypothesis you can't use public roads, at least without being a chisling hypocrite.

Monday, I had a conversation with someone who "worked hard" "from the age of 14" owned his own home, who seemed unmovable on the idea that hand outs to lazy people were unacceptable to him. Then he stepped aboard a bus - public transport - bloody leach ;)

Thousands Protest TPPA, Cthulhu's office minions hide under desks.

When an ancient monster of the deep doesn't get things going their way, things tend to get ugly. As evidenced after Cthulhu's return from Wellington to supervise John Key as he addressed a crowd of thousands critical of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

The whole affair went so badly Cthulhu had to pretend he was one of the protesters, just to not complicate the already huge mess his plan for economic and social devastation had become. Needless to say, his mood is considerably darker, than our last report. There is speculation of a Rick Astley revival tour, because this has escalated beyond a Justin Bieber concert level event.

Despite failing to win over the crowd on the Trans-Pacific partnership, John Key did manage to entertain the throng with dancing, air guitar and pony tail pulling.

At the end of the protest, dancing broke out behind him. Minions manoeuvred to squash the fun, but could only hold it to the base of the steps of Parliament.

Cthulhu hides in crowd to avoid "complicating" the destruction of reality.

Huge crowd at impromptu protest after the protest.

Extra speeches enthusiastically welcomed, but not from Minion John Key.

The protest finished some time ago, almost everyone is still here

It seems Cthulhu may be worried that if enough people know how bad this deal is, it may well fail and new plans will have to be developed to bring on the destruction of the great Galleon Earth.

Meanwhile, his suspicions have been confirmed, and what little has been leaked about the Trans-Pacific Partnership is devastatingly powerful, and his great mind bending powers may not be enough to turn public opinion around.

Worst still, the minions in charge of the project are engaged in infighting with some plotting to barbecue Tim Groser on a spit.

One minion said "I wouldn't call it utter chaos, but it is complete bedlam around here."

Captain Jack Noodle of Pastafarian Pirates of the Pacific, had this to say "Aye, This be interesting, the deal be straining under the weight of its own stupidity. Complete dissonant collapse be imminent... Stand back, put on yer goggles and hazmat suit, this is going to get rough! Arr 'tis better it implode before it matures to a working derangement. His Noodliness, the Flying Spaghetti Monster, will, find some comfort in this news. We may yet clear the foul winds of the Trans-Pacific Purgatory."

Update 12 Apr 2016 Thanks to Karin G for her fine work administering "John Key leave New Zealand be" on facebook.

See Also
   3News - Thousands protest against the TPPA Deal

Impertinent Kiwi's stand up to TPPA, Cthulhu "grumpy"

Today thousands of New Zealanders will take to  the streets and some will march on Parliament to voice their opposition to the Trans-Pacific partnership, this follows a week of action including rallies around the country.

The majority of New Zealanders, while keen on trade, see the Trans-Pacific partnership as a bad deal for New Zealand jobs, trade and sovereignty. The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, a similar agreement centred on the US and Europe, has stall over similar concerns, particularly over concerns around national and regional sovereignty.

The TPPA has opposition from primary producers, auto makers, and manufacturing firms because of concerns of market access, and intellectual property.

Still, Tim Groser and John Key seem pretty excited by the prospect of  a deal being made, rather like a moth to a bug zapper.

It has not been a good month for the TPPA, and Cthulhu has been disturbed by recent developments, His mood has not improved with news of popular uprising against his terrible power. Sources close to Cthulhu said "All morning he's been muttering, very little that is intelligible, but every now and then 'impertinent monkeys' is voiced clearly. And he's cleared his appointments for the rest of the day." 

Observers, say this could be a sign he's planning something big, natural disasters cannot be discounted. Remember Christchurch? That was because the National Front failed to get any political representation. Expect much worse if the TPPA fails. At this point, a Justin Bieber concert is not inconceivable.

We asked Captain Jack Noodle of Pastafarian Pirates of the Pacific for comment.

 "Aye, We pirate crew stand for creativity happiness and harmlessness, the cut of Cthulhu's gib catches no fair winds, so we stand to navigate from foul air. towards the beer volcano and merrymaking. His Noodliness,  The Flying Spaghetti Monster, sauce be upon him, is concerned that the Trans-Pacific Partnership has developed this far, and suggest we steer clear of its fouled air, in case it fails to collapse under the weight of its own stupidity. Ramen!" 

TPPA Maui Ministerial mauling leaves Cthulhu "really bummed"

The final meeting of trade ministers from countries negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership concluded without reaching consensus, the final sticking point being access to markets for dairy producers and auto makers, among New Zealand, Japan, and North America

Pacific Rim trade ministers have failed to clinch a deal to free up trade between a dozen nations after a dispute flared between Japan and North America over autos, New Zealand dug in over dairy trade and no agreement was reached on monopoly periods for next-generation drugs.
[Stuff]

Cthulhu has been disheartened by public resistance and the intransigent efforts of people who insist on explaining the consequences of the Trans-Pacific Partnership to the public at large, and rightwing media brown-nosers.

Mana News

While the ministerial delegations have taken to blaming each other, the effect of popular criticism of Cthulhu's flagship plan for economy and political devastation of also half of the worlds economy cannot be denied.

A unnamed minion close to Cthulhu remarked off the record "It's a real blow, this was supposed to be an easy way to make the monkeys to most of work for us cephalopoids, which is the normal order of things. Destroying this world should have been a doddle. He's very upset, some might say 'really bummed' right now. We're trying to console him, there is reason to be hopeful, the oceans are souring and warming at a steady pace, the atmosphere is destabilizing quite nicely with CO2 levels above 400ppm, so the droughts and floods are creating quite a bit of devastation. His reputation as Cthulhu the Destroyer of Worlds is safe, we think. But these set backs weigh on him a bit."

"All is not lost. The Trade in Services Agreement is still a work in progress, and public sector assets will eventually come under our control, so these pesky popular criticisms will be come irrelevant, if they don't do what we want, we'll just starve them out."

"Of course, keeping the terms of the Trans-Pacific Partnership secret, has been an important part of the strategy, Stupid as the monkeys are, even they won't endorse a plan to simply off themselves, or at least be fitted with a brain stem collar for complete obedience to Cthulhu. Some have even tried to get the secrecy lifted[Live News]. It is almost like they are are on to us, though our research tells us it is just the natural predictable irrationality of the monkeys at work here. As fellow minion Tim Groser said, they are "politically irrelevant". It is true that mistakes were made and the monkeys found out what we were up to in health care, Intellectual property, and investment, after that it was never going to be easy."

Spokes Pirate for Pastafarian Pirates of the Pacific, Captain Jack Noodle says, "Aye, this be cause for celebration! The Trans-Pacific Partnership was brewed from Gollum spells, psychic surgery, animal sacrifice,  homoeopathy and free-market dogmatism. No significant benefits from it could be demonstrated, it is best that it fail now, rather than at a time when people have to live with its consequences."

Does John Campbell's coverage of Noble Bob Douglas's "some success" mean an about face?

Still green Mr Campbell?

Tonight a story presented by John Campbell has caught the ire of some hardworking folks fighting to keep our local environment a fit place for New Zealander's to prosper, calling into question the direction John Campbell may be taking his coverage of the issues.

This story is introduced as a quick update, and at about 3 minutes 4 seconds, it is likely a story that was squeezed in last minute, these things happen in news cycles. Early in this story on tonight's programme John Campbell's item points to the impressive piece of technology that is the exploration ship (Ig)Nobel Bob Douglas , so impressive it costs $1m/day to run. Impressive, yes, it is. Virtuous, hardly, but that was not mentioned in the clip.

The piece mainly focuses on opinions in Raglan while the introduction does mention that Raglan gets the bulk of the risks, and few of the benefits. Lines like "And not always sitting the newly lawful distance away." allude to the dodgy Mining and Resources Act clause introduced last year. "In short Raglan gets the environmental risk, although it would have to be a catastrophic spill to reach here, without the direct economic benefit Taranaki would enjoy."

One person interviewed, talked about how as consumers people like himself are part of the "problem". He seemed ambivalent about the value of Anadarko's exploration in New Zealand. Odd logic really, even an addict committed to recovery can understand and say rehab is good and understand that their supplier should be kept at some distance. And their are viable alternatives, it is just a matter of developing the scale. Ethanol+vegetable oil -> esters (aka bio diesel), runs nicely in a diesel motor with a little tuning. To be fair, it is easy to find people who haven't quite thought things through, or are not fully acquainted with the available options. Jo Averge with a mic shoved in his face rarely the thoughtful creature they are in more pensive moments.

Another person, was enthusiastically in favour  of exploration. Which is still a position held by more than one third of the public, though that number is falling. Clearly the position of the unrepentant addict, like the boozer that says "It's only few. I'm just being social. I'm not hurting anyone."

And the last person, essentially noted that the oil company staff wont have anything to do with Raglan and that "it would do Raglan no good at all." This makes a very good point that Raglan and much of the country will see little benefit from exploration. Our royalties are among the cheapest in the OECD, the government's role in this deal is like a dip-sh*t dad that opens to two men who "We're burglars, we've come to do your house." To this, the dad says "Sure fellas, will it take long? The wife will be home in thirty minutes."

One person noted how the jobs were highly specialized and that he did not know anyone in the industry.  Which does bring forth the issue, that while the industry will create jobs, they will not be filled from our local work force, but from imported expertise.

The (ig)Noble Bob douglas is reported to have had "some success". Which suggests oil or gas were found. While a full report is expected on Wednesday, the signal can for now represent at least three possibilities.

Worst case: They found oil or gas at commercially viable pressure,  which means the carbon addicts will be back to get their fix, putting our local environment at risk and putting the global climate deeper into chaos, destabilization and extreme weather.

Best case: They found oil or or gas at very low pressure making extraction non viable. In which case, Anadarko so nice to see you leave.

In the middle - but still very bad, the pressure is low, but high enough that pumping water into to the reserve will mean that they still make a profit from extraction even though  it will cost them. Extraction may even involve fracking.

This analysis was not offered during the coverage of the story. Perhaps as a breaking story there wasn't enough time to prepare an analysis or time in the show to present it.

I note that John Campbell is a journalist, an item like this is news. And so he reported it. While he seemed a little too excited in reporting the story, the question remains is that because he's reporting a big news item on a big issue(a journo's wet dream) or because he now thinks the find is a good thing, is faking it under instruction, or is just rushing to get through it in 3 minutes. He also pointed to some risks of the exploration. To some extent it could be considered he said/she said fake balance coverage, if you miss his somewhat non specific pointing to the risks that Raglan faces. Risks that John Campbell's audience should by now be quite familiar with.

If there is an about turn in Campbell Live's coverage of the issue, I don't see it. It would be an important shift, that I would hope not to see. But if someone can show me evidence of such a shift I'd like to see it. Such things are not unheard of and now that they've found what they are looking for, it is possible that they just dropped a big advertising contract on MediaWork's sales desk. But I need more evidence in order to accept that a U-turn has taken place.

Can we  see Simon Bridges loosing his cool on the show again - now that is what I call full disclosure.

See also
    Campbell Live reports Anadarko's  "some success" drilling off Taranaki.

ADDENDUM 4-FEB-2014
It appears that while a possible imbargo may have been in place last last as Campbell Live reported "some success" in a story titled "Has Anadarko found oil of the coast of Taranki?" Any gleeful body language might be attributable to knowing that Anadarko came up empty-handed. Apparently "some success" means "We drilled and it didn't blow up in our faces." And that is oil industry success I can live with.

But they are still exploring, and heading to a site off the Otago coast. I''m hoping for similar results. After that there is the Pegasus Basin site off the Kaikoura coast where MV Duke is engaged in seismic testing, deafening whales dolphin etc. But surely who would question a large multinational trying to make a buck  while #$%@ing the wildlife that drives existing local industry. Anyone with a thought in their head I would say, but I'm crazy like that.

Spaghetti Defend New Zealand

This week New Zealand's Prime-minister John Key announced his desire to see a referendum to get input on updating the New Zealand ensign after he described a recent referendum on partial privatization as a "political stunt". At a time when the economy is flat, unemployment is high with official figures hiding about 100,000, and 1 in 4 kids living in poverty, the question arises is this really a good use of the public's attention?

None the less the anthem, is definitely a tired vestige of a by-gone era and it needs updating too.

Pasta of nations in thy sauce,
With the bowls of noodles we meet,
Hear our voices, we entreat,
Spaghetti defend our free land.

Guard Pacific's triple cheese sauce,
From the shafts of Tag Oil and Anadarko,
Make her praises heard afar,
Spaghetti defend New Zealand.

Simon Bridges spazzes out on Campbell Live

Minister for Energy and Resources, and Associate Minister for Climate change issues, (seems like a conflict of interest to me) appeared on Campbell Live and proceeded to have a tantrum worthy of  guano psychotic Michelle Bachman. the only thing he didn't say was  "'Maranatha Come Lord Jesus, His day is at hand, '"

See the interview here

Simon Bridges seemed out of his depth, like many in the Tea Party, spouting talking points that barely if at all address any questions or issues raised. He also seem to be trying to win the conversation by simply talking louder and oer John Campbell. John did call Bridges out, clearly a little exasperated, in the most professional way for this nonsense, but Bridges continued. Continuing to demonstrate a disregard for facts not seen in New Zealand politics outside of case resulting in fraud trials. Bridges tactics were a brilliant demonstration of handwaving, that should be study by boy scouts aiming for the semaphore badges. Brilliant also how John pressed to admit that drilling would be in waters twice as deep any other drilled in NZ waters to date. They effort Bridges put into avoiding making this strongly evident.

Strangely it seemed, it was like he was working from a Tea Party media handbook. But then with all these US based Oil companies, If we export crude to the US, Koch Industries will more than likely refine some of that oil. With the Koch Brothers funding Tea Party's start up and spending $200m to defeat the Affordable Care Act and shutting down the US government to make it happen, it does not seem so strange. It seems quite reasonable in fact. All it needs is proof.

It has been noted that once the TPPA is signed there will be no backing out at least not without getting sued by multinational companies with reserves big enough to buy the entire country.

Simon Bridges also made illegal to protest within 500 metres (546 yards) of an oil industry vessel. The law contravenes international law and the principle of the right to non violent protest, of the sort the Arctic 30 have been charged with piracy by the Russian authorities. Note 1,300,000 people have written to Russian ambassadors in a effort to #freethearctic30.

See also
    Full article John Campbell holds Bridges to the fire
    Koch planned shutdown
    itsourfuture.org.nz

Real estate and dog whistles

One of the problems the New Zealand economy has is a lack of investment in the manufacturing sector. This begs the question why do investors shy away from such an innovative and world beating sector? The same reason that they invest in any thing, the get a better return somewhere else.

It turns out "somewhere else" is property investment. We have here no capital gains tax, we are one of the last developed nations that hasn't yet put capital gains in place.

Another issue is that overseas based investors seem to be entering the property market further driving up market prices. In some areas like Auckland, prices are inflated because of lack of land approved for residential development.

All this creates big problems in the New Zealand economy. First home buyers are increasingly being locked out of the market and the latest suggested move that banks tighten lending criteria to cool the market only makes this worse. More over Auckland is becoming a city in which it is too expensive to live in, the transport system is under pressure, as local bodies debate the inner city rail loop and traffic congestion flood main arterial routes in to and out of the city on a daily basis.

Seeking to position itself for the election in November 2014 the New Zealand Labour Party is offering to pass legislation to block real-estate sales to parties resident over seas. This may remove some portion of 7% of the market. Labour has also reaffirmed its position that will bring in a capital gains tax.

The responce from our Primeminister is pretty slimey, calling the proposed block on foreign real-estate investment "racist" particularly pointing to Asian investment. However the policy offered is blind to nationality or ethnicity. It would block Bono, or Bill Gates as it would block the CEO of Foxxcon.  Neoliberals will of course hate this policy because it defeats the progress of globalization. Globalisation is of course, a con. It inflates corporate profits by making the 1st world middle class compete with the 3rd world. This has devastated the US manufacturing sector over the last forty years. New Zealand's manufacturing sector too has been adversely affected, Today we continue to lose manufacturing jobs, 40,000 in the last five years. And with the failing fortunes of the manufacturing sector, so fortunes of the middle class who rely on manufacturing have suffered.

The effect of these policies will be two fold. Reducing speculators in the property market will reduce inflated property pricing and busts leading to mortgagee sales. Also the policy will make it more possible for first home buyers to enter the market. New Zealand will never be competitive as long as it is content flip real-estate among its 1%ers.

The second major effect is that manufacturing becomes a more attractive investment. We have people researching and developing new technologies. New Zealand is poised to do very well exporting clean energy technology.  Such technology will need investment to help bring it to market. More over these new technologies will add up to a brand new major industry sector.

The sector already has players. For example Zero Emission Vehicles manufactures electric busses. ZEV recently made headlines when it provided Kapiti Counsel with an electric rubbish truck.

Like America, New Zealand needs a plan to grow our manufacturing sectors. What we don't need is a failing ideology that's only successful at making the super-rich richer while making everyone else impoverished and livid.

The emperor and the dark side of the force...

Would I spy on you? In a heart beat!

Recent weeks their has been a public wrangling over what the Prime Minster of New Zealand knew and when in relation to the Dotcom raids of July 2011. Shortly after those Raids, Kim Dotcom held a public meeting, in Selwyn during which he discussed the broader circumstances of the raids (that we now know were illegal) and the charges against him.

While Dotcom was seeking to become a permanent resident, The Security Intelligence Service (SIS), had issued a certificate opposing his application.

In mid 2010 John Key, visits California, and talks to major studio representatives. The very next day the SIS certificate is withdrawn, paving the way for Dotcom to get his Permanent Residency status.

Once the PR status is granted GCSB had no legal basis to monitor his activities, but that did not stop them. And now Prime Minister John Key has pushed through legislation to make such monitoring of New Zealand Citizens legally permissible.

The problem with this is the GCSB operates under the auspices of the Prime-minister’s office. This is the path by which persecution of political opposition comes.

It is disturbing to so many quoting unwittingly Jospeph Goebals, the Nazi minister for propaganda when they say "If you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to fear." Taken in its true context this quote is chilling.

Bradley Manning has nothing to hide, especially after they stripped him naked, made him sleep with the lights on, and look at what they did to him. While some people might call it dating, keep in mind at end of a date, everybody goes home, Bradley might be lucky to see photos of home.

None the less, there was national day action in New Zealand's  main centre, With MP Gareth Hughes speaking in Auckland.


See Also:
   Radio Live

Are we stuffed on inequality?

Fairfax media might seem to think so. So much so concerned staff are leaking they they have been told ignore visiting UK Professor Robert Wade.  Stuff.co.nz and Dominion Post publishers are said to have barred staff from contacting Professor  Wade.

Let's why they might like to not give Professor Wade column inches, well he did say Capital Gains taxes should get more attention. Calling the fact that we don't have capital gains "outrageous". It is like he criticizing a plumber in a flooded bathroom for not turning off the spigot. At in regard to the over inflated property market. Now they could not possibly want people hearing about a tax that would stabilize property values because there is a slim chance it might hurt the margins of property speculators and investors. And you can almost be certain the top brass at Fairfax have property investments and any talk of capital gains would knock wind out of the property market as investors shy away from uncertain returns. Never mind upsetting realstate advertisers.

Professor Wade commented “And, I mean, it is I think quite outrageous that in New Zealand there's no capital gains tax… But of course if you have a situation where economic policy is being made by the top 1% for the top 1%, then the last thing you're going to get is political movement towards a capital gains tax,”

See also
   NBR
   FearFactsExposed

Big Oil heading for Big Crunch or big Crash

Now that peak-oil has come and gone where are we now? Peak Oil described the period of time when oil production from traditional and relatively easy land based oil drilling would be at its maximum, that was about 10 years ago. Gone are the days when using 1 barrel of crude oil would translate to 20 barrels of new crude extracted from the ground.
The reduced supply, and the extra costs in drilling at sea, or of the many small drill sites involved in shale-gas extraction. Today, the extraction industry delivers as little as 2-4 barrels equivalent barrels. Shale gas extraction is especially expensive, since transporting equipment, fracking fluids, "produced" fluids, requires many large "gas guzzling" trucks.
Oil sands suffers from essentially the same problem. But on top of that, Canadian oil sands alone, are set to add another 140ppm for atmospheric CO₂ which is in-congruent with organized life on this planet. So far climate change has seen the planets temperature rise <1°C. Already we have seen consequences. Some days in the last Australian summer were so hot that petrol(gasoline) evaporated before it reached the tanks of motor vehicles. Ohio was too hot for corn to fertilize in 2012. Wildfires in Colorado, and Sandy in New York. These freak weather incidents are becoming the new normal.  New Zealand now has a tornado season, and the media have stopped using "80 year" flood/drought terminology any more because such events are now seen so regularly they are really "5-10 year" events.
Over the last 40 years, litmus paper dipped in ocean water has been coming out a different colour. Ocean water is now 30% more acidic than it was in the 1970s.
Warmer air absorbs more water, Water evaporates from the soil faster, the air carries more water before reaching saturation. as the air moves and its pressure falls it now dumps more rain often in places and in such quantities declarations of emergency from local and national authorities are inevitable. The air is now 5% wetter. Europe is seeing floods in summers, 20million Pakistani people were displaced by floods in a region that never sees floods(so much for Mosaic rainbows).
It seems to me, and I could be well wrong, that the last time the climate changed this fast was 65m years ago, and saw the extinction of dinosaurs.

Well known liberal radical bastions (that's sarcasm for the benefit of Louie Gomert and Michelle Bachman) Price-Waterhouse Coopers, the International Energy Agency, and the World Bank, point to the world heading for trouble. Price-Waterhouse Coopers the people who count the Oscar votes looked at the proprietary databases of the extraction industry and found 2795 giga tonnes (Gt) of carbon in their business plans. The world bank noted that there is no chance of development in a world with rapidly rising temperatures. The International Energy Agency's annual report says 80% of the carbon in the business plans of extraction companies must stay in the ground. The maximum amount of carbon the atmosphere can absorb is 565Gt - any more than that and temperatures rise above the 2°C safe limit agreed upon in 1995.

While Copenhagen was haled at the time as a great starting point, you might be forgiven for thinking there should by now be some bold new action plan that would have been decided upon and agree to with exciting projects receiving public funding, new jobs, international cooperation. But so far bold international agreement is limited to the 1995 aggreement that anything more that 2°C would be bad. Indeed subsequent climate summits have been mired in in-fighting and nations arguing to get some advantage for petty self interests. Worse still corporations have effectively bribed law makers to do nothing that would hurt their industry including public investment in competitive industries like Wind or Solar industries with politicians using sound bites like "we don't pick winners".

But despite the dearth of support, renewable clean energy is coming online and growing fast. The Carbon fuel industry will face real competition from primarily wind and solar. The world largest coal company, Coal India, uses solar power in its facilities because it's literally cheaper than burning coal straight out of the ground. Solar generation, is already approaching grid parity in India, and will soon be cheaper than other generation that they are using.

What does this mean? It means carbon energy is losing market share, while its expense base is rising. Much profit is made through commodities speculation an derivatives. What will happen when the bottom drops out of the market? First up investment is under downward pressure from concerned ethical investors who are divesting funds from Big Carbon investments. Eventually this will cause the Big Carbon share price to crash. These divested funds wont disappear, they go into other funds and the stock market can remain stable. What ever you do don't get caught with Big Carbon stocks in your portfolio unless you want to take a bath, especially you big banks.

Bill McKibben spoke ineloquently but effective at The Embassy Theatre in Wellington last night. I was surprised to read in The Listener article that the New Zealand Superfund has over NZ$22b invested in big carbon. If you are a KiwiSaver it will be in your best interest to lobby for divestment from big carbon. Because when Big Carbon goes down investors will lose big.
As an ethical consumer you might want to avoid Z fill-up stations too. Shell the Parent Company for Z is exploring off the Otago/Southland coast putting the fishing industry at risk.
Another way to avoid adding more carbon to the atmosphere is to use filtered used vegetable oil with a dash of ethanol.

As parliament advances human rights, meet the sore losers

It was only to be expected really, the Conservative Party of New Zealand are just not happy with Wednesday nights vote to allow the state to recognize the right to marry regardless of gender or sexuality. Not only does this bill mean same sex couples can marry, it will also mean the an end to mandatory divorces for couples where one spouse seeks to pursue their transgender identity.

But the conservatives and Winston Peters, with both calling for a referendum. Winston Peters made this clear in speech on Wednesday night in a moment where I not help imagine him in a rainbow afro wig, big red round foam rubber nose, and size 42 floppy shoes.

But he's not the only one talking about referenda.
Colin Craig's Conservative party issue the following press release on facebook.

Of course the problem that they appear to miss is that majority opinion on minority rights is subject to prejudice and the slanders and liables that prevail in the majority narrative. Then again they perhaps relying on it, because that narrative is subject to vociferous minorities spreading bullshit, we saw that happen in 1930 Germany, and we saw it in the lead up to the Rwandan Genocide as Hutu preachers, raised church attendance by slamming Tutsies. But the targets don't even have to be in the minority, in West Africa no one less powerful perhaps than a child, and preachers there persecute children for being witches

For a political party, it is unusual in this country to see a press release start with a religious reference. But since it is a quote from Colin Craig that should not be a surprised. And it is perhaps the first clue that dangerously stupid is about to be said.

The next paragraph is shall we say counter factual, a majority of Kiwis support this as evidenced by recent polls include one run by a group intent to fight the bill. While some polls have had results that appear to support the Conservative position many were far from scientific, include the Campbell Live text poll cited by Winston Peters. But even so I have already shown why even a well run poll would be pointless. Even if the Herald Digipoll got the number right at 52% the margin of error puts 49% with in range. Under 30's support marriage equality more than older generations and support is set to grow for marriage equality even faster as people notice the world isn't falling off its axis. The apparent rise against marriage equality is like the result of people accepting lies and liables against the variant communities and the wedge argument from consequences at were offered by the conservative quarter.  Not to mention the preacher that blame the drought on the marriage equality debate.

Yes, majority rules, is the platform position of Conservatives, And Germany voted to take away the rights of Jews

Should the Jew, with the aid of his Marxist creed, triumph over the people of this world, his Crown will be the funeral wreath of mankind, and this planet will once again follow its orbit through ether, without any human life on its surface, as it did millions of years ago.
And so I believe to-day that my conduct is in accordance with the will of the Almighty Creator. In standing guard against the Jew I am defending the handiwork of the Lord.

Mein Kampf - Adolph Hitler, Ch2 Vol 1 1922

'Atheists and humanists are the most discriminated groups in the country'

The religiously unaffiliated in the US is the fastest growing segment in the US and already number 20%.
Many see the lies, scaremongering, social manipulation, moral hypocrisy, and money hungry preachers and are repulsed.

Even though some US studies put atheists in a position of being less trusted than sex offenders, the religious right is organised and holds veto power of one of the two major political parties in the US. It's somewhat bizarre, because at the same time they respect Brad Pitts' work in Katrina recovery, George Clooney's ambassadorial works for human rights and are big fans of Daniel Radcliffe and Ian McKellan, not to mention the huge support for the Star Trek franchise - created by atheist Gene Roddenbury. Gene, Leonard Nimoy (raised in Jewish tradition) and two others wrote the Undiscovered Country after his acceptance of the atheist position. The script has Captain Kirk asking "What does God need of a star ship?". This is a parody of a Christian parable.


In New Zealand, the religiously unaffiliated number about 35%, but we have a similar problem to the US; as we have not yet organized a potent political force to counter the regressive politics of rightwing religious fundamentalists. It is time for secular people in America, New Zealand and elsewhere to organise. Todd Stiefel is doing his part and helped organise the Reason Rally 2012 that brought 20-30,000 secular people together on the Washington Mall. America's secular voters wielded surprising power in last year's presidential vote.

Here in New Zealand, The New Zealand Association of Rationalists and Humanists and the Humanist Society of New Zealand are working at the vanguard of bringing together secular New Zealanders. Recently, these groups worked together to bring a series of public seminars highlighting the encroachment of religious fundamentalism in our public schools. New Zealand prides itself on being an inclusive society. Religious fundamentalism is often unabashedly exclusive; this is an anathema to our Kiwi values. The failed push back for marriage equality is just one example, the vast majority of the opposition to Louisa Wall's bill was from religious groups. Too often, they offered vile arguments, scaremongering with predictions of criminal behaviour, and in at least one case blamed the drought on the discussions and push for marriage equality.

It may seem easy to dismiss these ludicrous contributions to the debate as just the product of the minds of random cranks, but the fact is they are not. The fact is too many unsceptical minds accept these assertions without question. Note that today the Bob McCroskrie's facebook group Protect Marriage NZ has over 7800 likes and sometimes posting material from the American Family Association which is listed by the Southern Poverty Law Centre as a hate group. Here is a sample from Bob himself:

When I checked today, I did not see any posts on that page by anyone other than "Protect Marriage NZ", primarily shares of statuses and blogposts by Bob McCroskrie. It sort of looks like the modern equivalent of the 1970's kook with a mimeograph in the basement. Though that appearance may be administrative because overtime an intolerance of tolerance grew in the way they handled dissenting posts.

Such intolerance of dissenting opinion is common among primarily fundamentalist groups. It seems they habitually take demonstrably wrong positions and can't stand their ideas being shown up as unsupported by anything more than sky hooks, or that the ideas they are pushing are flat out counterfactual. It creates an echo chamber effect which was so clearly demonstrated in the genuine shock of the GOP at the last US Presidential election.

Attack of the Kiwi theocrats

With the MMP threshold due to drop to 1% for the 2014 election, expect to see nationalistic theocrats The Conservation Party of New Zealand in Parliament in the next political term.

While their position on marriage equality is a big loser for them, they are organizing. But their relationship to media is somewhat strange with their public relations person at a recent public meeting attempting to act as minder in a fashion not out of place in a Panorama documentary on the Church of Scientology.

They seem to talk up the idea that they are a mainstream organization. The first time I heard that line was in the mid '80s from a Mormon door knocker. And you might still hear it from the Church of Scientology.

While there may be value in "economic nationalism", there are certainly less odious options like the Greens, or Labour who support this position without the tendency to legislate what us Kiwis do with our naughty bits.

While Craig's fans like the supporting the family bit, the fact is the Conservative only support one kind of family: the family of the bronze and iron aged Middle East. This policy alone should lose more than half the vote.

Colin Craig will not have a mandate in parliament; at most, like American politicians, his place in parliament will be bought and paid for with cash.

In the 1970's the Religious right was nowhere in US politics, now the Tea Party has veto power over the Republicans. Also today, the religious right is organizing and posing a threat to New Zealand's secular tradition. We can no longer rely on our secular tradition anymore. As we now have an opportunity to contribute to a written constitution, I feel it is a duty to make a submission to ensure separation of church and state enshrined in this constitution, as it is in the US Constitution's 1st amendment. Because even with that protection, the pressure is on in the US,  with Virginia attempting to get a federal court to uphold sodomy laws and North Carolina attempting to establish a state religion.

The Nation
Make a submission to Our Constitution.