Some mirages are used to fuel improper inferences, "The economy is in good shape because the stock market is high", however by this standard The American economy was in great shape on October 23, 1929, shortly after that it more resembled stale chowder, as October 24 was "Black Tuesday" the start of the great crash, during which, Wall Street was littered with the mangled corpses of stockbrokers who had been ruined by the "strong stock market" as half the value of stocks just evaporated.
Today the stock market is in record territory once again, just as it was in the tech boom, and in 2008. Overconfidence in the market is a sign, it is all about to go belly up. The bond rate is now inverted, these are usually bought as a hedge against inflation, but now the banks that by them are making losses on them. This is a loud signal the system is about to implode.
The IMF world economic outlook has worrying news for the American economy but also notes challenges in the agricultural sector including the tight labor market and the trade war with China. (See https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/WH)
Over the medium term, however, global growth is expected to soften, and risks are tilted to the downside, owing to the possibility of a sharp tightening of financial conditions, escalating trade tensions and risks of a further shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.
Tax policy still encourages manufactures to seek cheap labor in Asia and elsewhere, doing little for America's struggling middle class.
Also facing the middle is the opioid drug crisis, and the lack of accessible quality essential healthcare, because healthcare is rationed by a private insurance bureaucracy that denies 80% of all claims in the first instance, in hope that claimants will find the money some other way, just die, or horror of horrors successfully argue that tests or treatments are indeed medically required. America remains the only developed nation where medical bankruptcy exists.
Deregulation of environmental policy is allowing for more pollution, which will result in public health impacts, and 100 million Americans are exposed to drinking water with unsafe contamination. While the case of Flint, Michigan is relatively high profile hundreds of other cities have unsafe water supplies. In part, because infrastructure has been neglected, to keep taxes low for corporations. Flint Michigan is perhaps a poster child for the political pressure to cut taxes to unsafe levels for the benefit of monied interests.
Many Americans filed tax returns for the first time since the Republican tax reform under the Trump administration, they could not help but notice, that many deductions that they had claimed in previous years, were no longer available to them. The bottom line for them was, they were paying more in taxes, when they would have expected a refund, if they were still due a refund, it was much smaller than previous years. However, corporations and billionaires benefited to the value of over USD1 trillion.
About that tight labor market, The is a measure of Americans actively looking for work, or as the Department of labor statistics calls it "U3". They also track another value called "U6", this measures people who are parttime for economic reasons alone, this stands at 7.2%, well above the 3.4% U3 commonly cited. There is also evidence that many Americans are underemployed in part-time work. This is because many employers prefer to keep more part-timers for whom they are not required to provide health coverage for, to fewer full-time staff for which health coverage is required. This problem existed before the Affordable Care Act. Medicare For All would eliminate this problem, as all workers would be covered by a payroll tax, which would half the value of current private health insurance premiums. (See https://www.macrotrends.net/1377/u6-unemployment-rate)
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| -- U6 Unemployment -- U5 Unemployment -- U3 Official unemployment rate |
This graph shows the unemployment figures for the last 4 years, it shows a long trend of falling unemployment that continues undeflected by the last transfer of power between administrations, to credit the administration with outstanding performance, seems to overstate the facts, essentially they just haven't screwed up enough or otherwise impacted very much unemployment at all except for a slight leveling out, which may be indicative of economic issue not addressed by the administration or diminishing returns as available labor reduces. Some Americans were able to leave or reduce work commitments after the Affordable Care Act's introduction meant that they could afford health coverage. These people are not counted in unemployment figures.
Ken Bone |
The state of the US economy is complex, by any standard it is a huge system by any measure and simple statements about its overall health are easily misleading, but this one thing does seem important, over the last 30 years, the American 1% of greatest wealth holders have in that time see their wealth grow by USD21 Trillion, while the lest wealthy 50% have seen their wealth fall by USD900Billion(see https://www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2019/06/14/top-1-up-21-trillion-bottom-50-down-900-billion/). Since that latter group only had USD700billion to start with they are now indebted by USD200billion. Someone is clearly winning, it is probably not you. That could change, a new administration focused on putting forward the agenda of working Americans, livable wages, medicare-for-all, tuition-free college to invest in technology and skills development, jobs plan to future proof the energy system, end the for profit-slavery industrial prison complex, end the stupid wars. Most Americans already agree with this agenda, usually significant margins, the one big thing stopping change so far is the corruption of monied interests. With the current administration's ties to the Mercer family (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Mercer#2016_U.S._election), copious evidence, of influence peddling, and the industry ties of many of the administration appointments, it seems unlikely that this administration is the government you are looking for. You're probably looking for a candidate with a long anti-war record, a long pro-labor record, that is not a demagogue prone outrageous statements about invisible planes, and tossing paper towels at hurricane survivors.
Play nice, and praise the Flying Spaghetti Monster for she is noodly, Ramen.
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